Despite the rapid development of the crypto market, the emergence of hundreds of altcoins, and the introduction of blockchain in various industries, it is Bitcoin (BTC) that continues to play the role of the main reference point for investors. Its influence extends to the pricing of altcoins, the behavior of institutional players, the development of derivatives, and the formation of market sentiment.
An analysis of current data for 2024–2025 confirms that the Bitcoin price is still perceived as an indicator of the stability of the crypto market as a whole. Despite the growth of Ethereum and other leading cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, none have succeeded in displacing Bitcoin as the primary benchmark for the crypto market.
The First Cryptocurrency and Dominance in Capitalization
Bitcoin is the first digital currency launched in 2009. With a limited supply of 21 million coins and a decentralized structure, BTC has built a unique trust among crypto enthusiasts and investors.
According to CoinMarketCap, BTC’s share of the total crypto market capitalization in 2024 fluctuates between 45% and 52%. It means that any fluctuations in the bitcoin price automatically affect the portfolios of most crypto investors.
Bitcoin is also included in investment and pension fund portfolios, with organizations like BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest using it as an underlying asset for crypto exposure.
Correlation with Altcoins and Index Influence
Most altcoins show a positive correlation with BTC. This is especially pronounced during market trends. When Bitcoin rises, capital begins to flow into riskier assets. When it falls, investors withdraw funds from altcoins faster than from BTC.
This market structure positions Bitcoin’s price not merely as a reflection of demand but as a key driver of overall price movements in the crypto market. Traders often rely on the BTC Dominance Index as a signaling tool to evaluate trend strength and market direction.
Bitcoin as Digital Gold
Rising volatility in global currencies, persistent inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability are driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Bitcoin—thanks to its fixed supply and independence from government control—has increasingly been viewed as ‘digital gold.’
In its Q4 2024 report, Goldman Sachs listed BTC alongside physical gold, the Swiss franc, and short-term bonds as instruments capable of hedging macroeconomic risk. By 2025, institutional portfolios are allocating more capital to Bitcoin as part of a defensive strategy amid ongoing Fed policy uncertainty and equity market turbulence.
Standardization through ETFs and Derivatives
With the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US (January 2024), BTC has gained another channel of institutional demand. Instruments such as BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund have injected billions of dollars into the market.
The volume of open interest on CME in BTC futures has also grown, exceeding $6 billion in 2024. These products form benchmarks, and their prices depend on the bitcoin price on the spot market.
This level of institutionalization makes BTC not just a cryptocurrency, but a full-fledged investment asset with a high level of transparency and accessibility.
Behavioral Patterns and Media Focus
Media, analysts, and retail participants continue to perceive BTC as a noticeable indicator of the crypto market. Headlines in Bloomberg, CNBC, and Reuters continue to focus on the bitcoin price, even when discussing altcoins or DeFi.
The Block report (December 2024) notes that 78% of retail investors track BTC as a primary indicator when making market entry/exit decisions based on it.
Blockchain Transparency and Liquidity
Bitcoin remains the most extensively analyzed and technically transparent asset in the crypto market. Its deep liquidity across major exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken ensures consistent order availability and efficient trade execution.
In addition, the BTC network is regularly audited by independent analysts, and data on the movement of funds in the wallets of large holders (“whales”) is available in public sources such as Glassnode or Arkham Intelligence.
This simplifies analysis and increases confidence among both traders and regulators.
Model of Assessment and Forecasting
Bitcoin has many valuation models, including:
- Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
- MVR Ratio
- Puell Multiple
Although not always precise, technical indicators tend to be more reliably applied to BTC than to most other digital assets. It makes the Bitcoin price a pivotal indicator for assessing cycles, hot spots, and growth potential.
In 2025, according to Ark Invest’s forecast, the medium-term price of BTC could exceed $150,000 if the current rate of demand from institutional investors continues.
The Role of Halvings and Cyclicality
Bitcoin’s halving cycle—hardcoded into the protocol—reduces the rate of new supply approximately every four years, creating recurring phases of scarcity. Although the next halving is scheduled for April 2028, markets typically start repricing 12 to 18 months in advance, as traders anticipate tightening supply.
Historically, each halving event has marked the beginning of a major bullish cycle:
- In 2012, BTC surged from $12 to $1,200
- In 2016, from $650 to nearly $20,000
- In 2020, from $9,000 to a peak of $69,000 in 2021
Ahead of the 2024 halving, futures markets have already begun to reflect optimism, with long positions extending into late 2025 as investors position themselves for another potential rally.
Regulatory Certainty
Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin holds a more clearly defined regulatory status. In the U.S., regulators classify it as a commodity under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, providing greater legal clarity for institutional investors. In the EU, it falls under the MiCA rules as a recognized digital asset.
That reduces the risks of sudden bans or classification as a security, which is especially important for institutional investors.
Conclusion
Bitcoin remains the primary benchmark for all crypto market participants. Its high liquidity, institutional support, transparent structure, and historical significance ensure its leading position as a benchmark.
Although other projects continue to innovate and expand, Bitcoin’s price remains the primary indicator of overall market sentiment and direction in the digital asset space. Tracking this indicator allows investors to make more informed decisions in an environment of high volatility and uncertainty.
